la Frontera In the News

Austin Business Journal

June 22, 2004

Study: Austin's population to surpass San Antonio's

The Austin area is expected to replace the San Antonio area as the third largest Texas metropolitan area during the coming decades, according to a new report.

The demographic projections, which take into account the slowed growth in recent years, were released by the Texas State Data Center at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

If the projections are accurate, the Austin area's population during the next 35 years will soar from about 1.2 million now to between 2.7 million and 3.5 million. The San Antonio area has about 1.7 million residents now and is expected to have between 2.5 million and 2.7 million by 2040.

Exactly when Austin will bump San Antonio out of the number three slot is anyone's guess. Some estimates indicate it could happen as early as 2020. Conservative estimates suggest it will happen around 2040.

Houston and Dallas are expected to hold onto their No. 1 and No. 2 positions, respectively.

Overall, the projections suggest that under any of the likely scenarios, Texas will have six metropolitan areas with more than 1 million people each by 2040, and Dallas and Houston will have more than 8 million residents each.

By 2010, Texas might have about 25 million residents. The state could have more than 51 million by 2040. The projected growth rate for Texas is higher than any other state.

The median age of Texans between now and 2040 is expected to increase from 32 to about 39, and Hispanics, who make up a third of the population now, could account for half the Texas population by 2040.

Austin is expected to be only one of six metro areas where the Anglo population doesn't decrease by 2040. In the other 19 metro areas in Texas, the Anglo population will decline, the center forecasts.

The projections are based on historical data on birth, death and migration rates.